collapse

Catastrophic Shocks in Complex Socio-Economic Systems—a pandemic perspective

This paper by David Korowicz provides an overview of the effect of a major pandemic on the operation of complex socio-economic systems using some simple models. It discusses the links between initial pandemic absenteeism and supply-chain contagion, and the evolution and rate of shock propagation. It discusses systemic collapse and the difficulties of re-booting socio-economic systems.

Climate Change and Peak Oil: two sides of the same coin?

This talk given by David Knight on July 4th describes three possible future scenarios: runaway climate change; collapse triggered by peak oil; and "green future". He takes into account recent claims that peak oil can be postponed by the adoption of unconventional methods of oil production, and he concludes by presenting a wish list of actions by governments and citizens.

Trade Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse

This new study by David Korowicz explores the implications of a major financial crisis for the supply-chains that feed us, keep production running and maintain our critical infrastructure. He uses a scenario involving the collapse of the Eurozone to show that increasing socio-economic complexity could rapidly spread irretrievable supply-chain failure across the world.